May 2012
71 posts
April 2012
60 posts
Mathematical model improves predictions for species facing climate change
UCLA life scientists developed and tested a comprehensive mathematical model to track the health of populations exposed to environmental change. The research was published on 2 December 2011 in the journal Science.
I fotgot to post this. I wrote it a few months ago. Ooops… It remains valid, regardless. (I really wanted to include some wolf pictures too, no luck though).
The usage is novel, in that it unifies so many sub-fields (population biology, ecology, genetics, life-span and offspring information) in a single predictive model. Doing so enables the model to be run with changes to any given variable, such as temperature, and see the effect on many aspects of a population. For the sake of convenience, let’s refer to this as a one-to-many type model (but only for describing input-to-output).
Prior species-based environmental models were not one-to-many. Instead, they were one-to-one. This meant they were limited to analyzing single relationships, such as the effect of food availability on population size.
Species ecosystems aren’t as complex as other dynamic natural systems. Weather systems and forecasting models such as those used by the NOAA are on the extreme end of a hypothetical complexity scale. They might be more accurately described as many-to-many input-output models! They would be inappropriate for species ecosystems, in part because the environmental field data is not sufficiently robust to support such sophisticated (high-strung?) models.
WolvesThis model was developed with input from wildlife scientists. The most extensive collaboration was with the group who introduced wolves to Yellowstone Park in 1995. The project was intended to control elk and bison overpopulation. It was successful. Deteriorated forest was restored. And much more.
The presence of wolves in Yellowstone Park created an effect known as a
trophic cascade — allowing many species, such as songbirds, beavers and grizzly bears, to thrive again
Meanwhile, elk and bison populations returned to more balanced levels.
ApplicationsRegarding use for climate change, one of the UCLA researchers said this about the model:
We are not effective at stopping global warming, but perhaps we could identify ways to alter or enrich habitats to mitigate environmental effects…
This is where the Yellowstone Park wolves, and associated project data collected over a 15 year interval, was relevant. That data was used for calibration and testing the model during development.
ResultsWe could build scenarios for predicting whether a species has no chance of recovery [to guide timing and focus of] planned protection efforts.
Gradual, sustained change over time has more impact on a given species within an ecosystem than frequent changes that fluctuate within the same upper and lower boundaries.
See Scientists develop complex mathematical model with improved predictive accuracy for climate change impact, UCLA Newsroom, December 02, 2011 for more details, and photos.
Exxon Now Offers World’s Largest Dividend →
blogs.wsj.com
Sigh…
Not bad, compared to the 10-year’s 2% yield.
Yes, that IS bad!
Why would I want to buy Exxon (XOM) common with a 2.6% annual return (via dividend) when I could earn the same from risk-free U.S. T-notes?
There’s moreThe article, well, Wall Street Journal ”MarketBeat” blog post (April 25, 2012) said that the S&P 500 “annual yield” was 2.21%, which is just as unappealing. And unlikely. I realize that there’s always growth, potentially, with equities, but I still don’t think these numbers make sense.
Just to be perfectly clear about thisThis isn’t evidence of a wild market anomaly. It isn’t symptomatic of a shocking revelation that the financial markets “are broken”. Rather, I think this WSJ blogger didn’t check his facts closely enough. Check out the other comments.
Great post on the Black Death →
thechirurgeonsapprentice.com
‘Plague doctors’ from the Chirurgeon’s Apprentice
This is an excellent website in general. The particular post, thoughtfully mentioned by The Lady Google, features some excellent period images from a surprising source: Burroughs-Wellcome, the pharmaceutical company.
Trauma Patient Transport By Police, Not EMS →
regionstraumapro.com
When I was at Penn 25 years ago, I was fascinated to see that police officers were allowed to transport penetrating trauma patients to the hospital. They had no medical training and no specific equipment. They basically tossed the patient into the back seat, drove as fast as possible to a trauma…
Results of a comparison, in terms of mortality/ survivability rates for patient transport
- as fast as possible by police, when first to arrive at scene of incident, to the nearest emergency room, versus
- ambulance, by trained emergency medical service providers
Results are surprising, but ultimately, logically supported!
PLEASE NOTE
This was specifically for cases of penetrative injuries, usually gun shot wounds, without possible spinal cord complications from head or neck injury.
Sound like a special case, tiny subset, findings not broad enough in scope to be interesting? Yes, that crossed my cynical mind too. I was wrong. The comparison was done over a period of several years, with no fewer than 2,100 observations, in the same small geographic area in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
S.E.C. Files Charges Against Father and Son, and Twin Brothers →
dealbook.nytimes.com
The Securities and Exchange Commission brought two separate fraud cases on Friday that involved family members, including one in which twin brothers claimed they had a stock-picking robot named Marl.
Metadata of @AnonW0rmer from #CabinCr3w →
cmlh.id.au
cmlh:
I have produced a Maltego Graph hosted on GitHub with the GPS EXIF Image Forensics Local Transforms from Recx Ltd of the image from the PasteHTML page referenced in the statement of Scott Jensen:
The following were also noted during this OSINT exercise…
This was fascinating and uncommonly logical, as in “easy to follow without specialized knowledge”.
The author is trustworthy!
Do not fear to click on any links. Often, security forensics posts are opaque, long winded, or simply boring! This post was none of those things. It used a data visual to explain relationships, accompanied by sufficient text to be meaningful.
In my typically verbose manner, I have (most likely) written more text than the post to which I am referring!
* I apologize about the visual status of my website. It seems to be unstable, looking worse every day, regardless of whether or not I further torture the template…
“A man is a very small thing, and the night is very large and full of wonders.”
—Lord Dunsany via blacksunblackson
Defining Terms: Agree, or Doom your Project →
masteringdatamanagement.com
Somewhat long-winded article about a very important topic: Consistent standards and definitions.
The next post in the series seems promising. The author says she will be describing an example, of the challenges faced by a company with dozens of “Employee ID” definitions. I will try to remember to post the link!
NoSQL HSS Database for .NET, Silverlight, and WP7 →
nosql.mypopescu.com
Stefan Edlich adds another object oriented database to the long collection of non-relational databases:
The HSS Database is an object oriented database management system (OODB or ODBMS) for Microsoft .NET, Silverlight and Windows Phone 7. HSS Database gives developers the ability to store…
Preparing for the Next Pandemic — NEJM →
nejm.org
Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., M.P.H.
N Engl J Med 2005; 352:1839-1842 May 5, 2005
Fun with math: Dividing one by 998001 yields a surprising result →
iheartchaos.com
There’s all sorts of magic to be had with numbers, and many mathematicians have made entire careers in finding these little tricks that are mostly useless, but fun anyway. Unfortunately, a lot of calculators are going to truncate the results of this trick, but if you manage to get a hold of…
