Data Anxiety

Tempus fugit

#EU

Nocturnes: Brussels! by European Parliament on Flickr.

“Le Parlamentarium et le Muséum des Sciences naturelles s’associeront pour une soirée entièrement gratuite, entre passé, présent et futur!”

Dinosaur in front of the Museum of Natural Sciences dressed up in a special Parlamentarium costume.
* This photo is copyright free, but must be credited © European Union 2012 - European Parliament.

Nocturnes: Brussels! by European Parliament on Flickr.

“Le Parlamentarium et le Muséum des Sciences naturelles s’associeront pour une soirée entièrement gratuite, entre passé, présent et futur!”

Dinosaur in front of the Museum of Natural Sciences dressed up in a special Parlamentarium costume.

* This photo is copyright free, but must be credited © European Union 2012 - European Parliament.

m-x:


“This morning we briefly touched on the lack of clarity that is dominating the European crisis. We will. We will not. We are in the process of. We have not yet proposed. We have agreed. We have not discussed. We are open to. We reject. There will be a grace period. There will be no delay. Greece will have to comply with the terms agreed by its predecessors. We are willing to reconsider the terms. We back Eurobonds. We reject Eurobonds. We are considering Eurobonds. There is no discussion of Eurobonds. The loans/credit/paper will be distributed thru the ESM. They will be distributed thru the EFSF. We don’t know, but we think it will be the ESM. Publicized meeting in Rome, quiet meeting in Luxembourg, another summit at month-end. You get the picture. You don’t get the picture. Let’s have a meeting and see what we all think about the picture. Next year.”

kurvára vége lehetne már ennek az egész euróválságnak, vagy legalább ne tudjak róla

Absurd-ist sentiments are trending up. 
Maybe now. Maybe never.
Maybe next year in Jerusalem?
* Passover seder expression. Feels like a non-sequitor… isn’t the best analogy with the interminable Euro crisis situation. Similar though, in that it was said for hundreds, maybe a thousand years, without believing such an event would or could ever occur.

m-x:

“This morning we briefly touched on the lack of clarity that is dominating the European crisis. We will. We will not. We are in the process of. We have not yet proposed. We have agreed. We have not discussed. We are open to. We reject. There will be a grace period. There will be no delay. Greece will have to comply with the terms agreed by its predecessors. We are willing to reconsider the terms. We back Eurobonds. We reject Eurobonds. We are considering Eurobonds. There is no discussion of Eurobonds. The loans/credit/paper will be distributed thru the ESM. They will be distributed thru the EFSF. We don’t know, but we think it will be the ESM. Publicized meeting in Rome, quiet meeting in Luxembourg, another summit at month-end. You get the picture. You don’t get the picture. Let’s have a meeting and see what we all think about the picture. Next year.

kurvára vége lehetne már ennek az egész euróválságnak, vagy legalább ne tudjak róla

Absurd-ist sentiments are trending up. 

Maybe now. Maybe never.

Maybe next year in Jerusalem?

* Passover seder expression. Feels like a non-sequitor… isn’t the best analogy with the interminable Euro crisis situation. Similar though, in that it was said for hundreds, maybe a thousand years, without believing such an event would or could ever occur.

No Mongol invasions in Europe this year

via FT Alphaville: On the plus side, no Mongol invasions in Europe this year

Gorgeous timelapse of European state-making, 1000-2003:

Does it, er, say anything about the eurozone or sovereign finances in 2012? Yeah we think so - if only to remind that it took centuries to make little fiscal unions all over Europe.

Financial regulation assortment

Risk mitigation for European sovereign debt

alea:

Alea has embedded Twitter content very nicely on his Tumblr. I haven’t set it up properly here. Go have a look at Alea’s tumblr if you’re curious.

Risk mitigation for OTC Derivatives

Here’s something from the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), released on 24 January 2012: 

Report on OTC derivatives data reporting and aggregation requirements, CPSS Publications No. 100.

CPSS = Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems.

I like settlements and clearing, as it is something I know about, more so than economic theory (that is a story for another day…).

Anyway, this is the final report on the OTC derivatives data that should be collected, stored and made available to all by trade repositories. It is part of the overall program by regulatory agencies, including the Financial Stability Board (FSB), to bring about OTC derivatives market reform.

Here’s a summary from the announcement (the entire 70+ page document is available for download, see link above): 

By collecting such data centrally, [trade repositories] would provide authorities and the public with better and more timely information on OTC derivatives. This would make markets more transparent, help to prevent market abuse, and promote financial stability.

The report was expanded to elaborate on the description of possible options to address data gaps…and updated to reflect recent international developments in data reporting and aggregation requirements stemming from the Legal Entity Identifier (LEI)… in support of a request by the G20 at the Cannes Summit, to advance the development of a global LEI.

* Emphasis is mine.

Standardized identifiers

The matter of LEI’s is interesting. At the moment, we have

  • LEI’s, 
  • Bloomberg Open Symbology 
  • all the proprietary global financial security identifiers already extant e.g. ISIN, CUSIP, SEDOL 

Don’t forget XBRL, extensible business reporting language, which is more of a framework than merely an identifier.

There is certainly a lot of activity promoting standardization. I would expect some sort of standardization of standards on the horizon, possibly after the Euro crisis is less of a crisis than it is now. I hope that will happen soon.

Preparing for the worst: Managing risk in light of a troubled Eurozone »

According to FactSet Research Systems, there isn’t any effective way to hedge against a Euro breakup scenario. Recommended risk mitigation would be to buy German bonds and U.S. Treasuries.

And one more thing: If Greece leaves the EU:

all assets would have to be re-priced in the Drachma which would likely result in heavy losses.

Sarcasm time

Wow! None of this would ever have occurred to me. So insightful!

Maybe I shouldn’t be so critical. It is much better advice than putting everything into gold and bitcoins.

m-x:

innen

Part One
I apologize to subscribers who were deluged by my series of “tumblr clouds” this morning. I did NOT tell the silly app to auto-post! I am sorry, and more than a little embarrassed… such a n00b mistake…
Part Two
I offer this splendid chart describing nearly EVERYTHING pertaining to political economy and the risk-reward trade off of global trade. This is in the context of our ongoing European and U.S. (and maybe East Asian, or maybe not) financial crises.
Data details
Source data was NOT provided by OnlineMBAschool.com (the source for most, maybe even 99%, of all infographics)! This is from the Financial Times via clever m-x.
I checked the FT’s sources, given my earlier tumblr cloud debacle, and was pleased to see Thomson-Reuters Datastream (perhaps part of the Scotty Barber krew?), RBC Capital Markets, IMF and WTO. And of course Ian Bott of the Financial Times, without whom none of this would be possible… (nor any of it licensed nor authorized… shhhh).
Perhaps this is within bounds of fair use? The image is indecipherable unless you click through, which leads to the Financial Times website… hot linked to the jpg … shhhh… (again).

m-x:

innen

Part One

I apologize to subscribers who were deluged by my series of “tumblr clouds” this morning. I did NOT tell the silly app to auto-post! I am sorry, and more than a little embarrassed… such a n00b mistake…

Part Two

I offer this splendid chart describing nearly EVERYTHING pertaining to political economy and the risk-reward trade off of global trade. This is in the context of our ongoing European and U.S. (and maybe East Asian, or maybe not) financial crises.

Data details

Source data was NOT provided by OnlineMBAschool.com (the source for most, maybe even 99%, of all infographics)! This is from the Financial Times via clever m-x.

I checked the FT’s sources, given my earlier tumblr cloud debacle, and was pleased to see Thomson-Reuters Datastream (perhaps part of the Scotty Barber krew?), RBC Capital Markets, IMF and WTO. And of course Ian Bott of the Financial Times, without whom none of this would be possible… (nor any of it licensed nor authorized… shhhh).

Perhaps this is within bounds of fair use? The image is indecipherable unless you click through, which leads to the Financial Times website… hot linked to the jpg … shhhh… (again).

EU banks are NOT hoarding

Via alea:

High ECB reserves are not evidence of bank “hoarding”

According to some media reports, the high level of reserves – specifically the €412 billion deposited in the overnight facility… indicate that banks are “hoarding” liquidity injected by the ECB rather than lending to each other and the wider economy.

This is wrong. While an individual bank can reduce its reserves by lending or buying assets, this is not true for the system as a whole – the cash is simply transferred to other banks…

I should have reposted this sooner, date was 28 December 2011. However, the content remain valid.

Emphasis is mine.

Hungary

Edward Hugh says via EconoBrowser (and in English):

there is another factor which gives what is happening now in Hungary special significance… “reform weariness”.

If the solutions which are being promoted by the IMF and the EU Commission are based on a faulty or incomplete analysis, the measures won’t work, and this will lead to disappointment. The political dynamics of what could happen is concerning….

Could Hungary be the first example of a country that has lost hope and gone down the road of believing in demagogic politicians? Could this be the future in Greece, Latvia, Portugal and Italy? And if it is, how the hell do you hold the EU, let alone the Euro together? This is the burden of responsibility for those making the decisions.

Hungarian news analysis via Index.hu makes this situation very clear: Do not be too optimistic: The next Greece? 10 January 2012.

Originally in Hungarian, followed by the brutalization of Google Translate into English, then screen shot by me, downloaded to PC, back up to tumblr:

Index.hu Next Greece excerpt1

(From 2008 to 2009?) the Hungarian economy (GDP?) contracted by 7%. From 2000 - 2009, consumer prices increased by 72% and the currency merely depreciated by 8%. The currency can’t be devalued. Usually this could be accomplished by the Hungarian central bank.  (Because of public indebtedness to Switzerland? Or  due to Swiss franc denominated debts… to whom? By whom? Whatever the reason, it exists, and is detrimental).

Index.hu Next Greece excerpt 1

Slow death

The population is aging. Moody’s (and the other credit rating agencies) are downgrading Hungary’s sovereign debt. Based on this article, Hungary seems well aware of the situation and the causes. There is no anti-rating agency fury. If anything, based on this, Hungarians consider the situation to be bleaker than the foreign ratings agencies do.

Finally, the rate of increase of inflation increased from 2008 to 2009 (I think).